YLC’s Eurovision expert Rafi Uddin has been a real superfan of the Eurovision Song Contest for nearly 15 years. He’s got a great track record in predicting the outcome, getting almost every winner right since 2012. The exceptions were 2013 when his winner pick got third place, and 2018 where his winner pick got second place. It is worth noting that he makes his final winner picks the night before the Grand Final, so the picks in this article can very well change by then, when the live performances are factored in. These predictions look at which songs will appeal to the televoters, which songs the juries will vote for, and overall who looks like having the best chance of winning.
The Televote
This year it’s very difficult to predict who will win the televote. I have a good idea of who could do well in the televoting, but there is no song this year that screams televote winner. I think it will be a close race with the televoting and any of the following countries I’m listing could win the televote. There might be even more potential televote winners, but I tried to limit this down to five countries.
I think Malta is a potential televote winner. Malta usually does better with the juries than with the televoters, but this time I think Malta will find more support with the televote. The song has the kind of sound that televoters usually like and that’s why I feel the televoters will carry the song. In my opinion there are many similar sounding songs this year, which means they will be fighting for the same votes. I feel however, that Malta will come out on top out of these up-tempo songs. Malta already has over 3 million views on the official video, which means it’s the third most viewed video on the Eurovision channel this year, and that says a lot considering Malta only has a population of 500,000 people.
Switzerland is another potential televote winner. They’re sending a song this year that will definitely stand out from the masses. The song has an artistic vibe and I think it will be emotionally gripping to the audiences at home. There is no other song this year that sounds like it. This is most likely the only song that will finish in the top 3 with both televoters and juries.
Finland could also do really well with the televoters, but I doubt they have what it takes to win. Historically, the televoters usually vote for rock songs way more than the juries do. Rock songs actually do poorly with the juries many times, but I do think Finland has what it takes to even be a potential televote winner.
Lithuania is another potential televote magnet. Their song really comes to life in the live performance and their dance moves will find their way to audiences at home. I don’t know if this song will appeal as much to the juries, but I think there’s a very good chance Lithuania will get their best result ever.
Iceland was the pre-contest favorite in 2020 before the contest got cancelled. Many countries have decided to send the artist they intended to send in 2020 and Iceland is no exception. The song has a similar sound to what they had last year, so why can’t this song be just as successful? It has a retro vibe which many people will find nostalgic and I think the song will warm the audience’s hearts.
Here’s what I think the televoting top 5 will look like:
Malta
Switzerland
Finland
Lithuania
Iceland
The Juries
Predicting what the juries will like this year is somewhat easier. There are a bunch of jury-friendly songs this year and they are easier to pick out. The juries usually vote for radio-friendliness, polished performances, and good vocals. There are two or three songs this year that I think are potential jury winners.
France is definitely a potential jury winner. Their song has a similar vibe to the one that Portugal had in 2017, and that song won the whole thing by a landslide including the jury vote. The juries will respect the song for its quality and I think it’s hard to imagine this song doing poorly with the juries.
Sweden always does well with the juries. This year shouldn’t be an exception. Sweden has finished in the top 3 with the juries every year since 2012 except one time. The song that won the Swedish national selection was the winner with international juries as well as the televoters, so this is a good indication that the international juries will vote the same way in the actual Eurovision. Sweden has finished in the top 3 with the juries in Eurovision, even when the song wasn’t the jury winner in the national selection. The song is the kind of song that juries usually vote for. It feels very polished, slick, and calculated, and that’s what Sweden has been sending many times recently. This leads to repeated success with juries, but not so much with the televoters.
Bulgaria is definitely going to do well with the juries, but I don’t think it’s a jury winner. I feel like the juries will respect the quality of this song to give the song a good result, but it doesn’t give real winner vibes.
Switzerland and Malta will probably do well with the juries as well, but more on those songs can be found above in the televoting section. Switzerland is a potential jury winner though.
Here’s what I think the top 5 of the juries will look like:
France
Switzerland
Sweden
Malta
Bulgaria
Who will win the Eurovision Song Contest?
This is really an unpredictable year with a bunch of potential winners, but I would be surprised if one of the following countries didn’t win. I think it comes down to Malta, Switzerland, or France.
Malta has the most upbeat song out of these countries and the televoters usually vote for upbeat songs more than the juries do. This might be enough to make Malta the televote winner. The juries also always give high scores to Malta, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t repeat these voting patterns when Malta is a contender to win the contest.
Switzerland probably won’t be the ultimate winner with either the televoters or the juries, but I think they will be the ones who benefit the most from the 50/50 point system. I think Switzerland are the only ones who will finish in the top 3 with both groups and I can even see them finishing second with both groups like Ukraine did in 2016, and they ended up winning that year.
France could be a huge jury favorite, but I don’t think it will get as much support from the televoters. I think France will still do well with the televoters, but not nearly enough to be in the top 3 with them. If France wins this year, I think it will be thanks to the juries.
My initial winner pick is going to be Switzerland. I think Switzerland will have what it takes to win the Eurovision Song Contest because of the massive support from both televoters and juries. I also think they’re going to have amazing staging. It’s also been 32 editions since Switzerland won the contest. Last time they won it had also been 32 Eurovisions since they last won. It might be a pattern that Switzerland wins every 32 years.
It’s worth noting that a lot could change and that this is an unpredictable year. A lot could change at the rehearsals, and I don’t think it will be solidified who could actually win the contest until then. It’s worth noting that I’ve tried to be as objective as possible with these predictions, and I’ve tried not to let personal biases influence these predictions. Some of the countries I’ve mentioned aren’t among my personal favorites, but I think other people will like them. Some personal favorites I have that didn’t make the list are Denmark, Czech Republic, and Greece. I’m skeptical about their winning chances, but I would be happy to see them do well or even win. Let’s hope for a great edition of the Eurovision Song Contest.
When is the competition?
- Semi-final 1: 18 May 2021
- Semi-final 2: 20 May 2021
- Grand Final: 22 May 2021
